What do drafters dream of when they take a little drafter snooze?

Do they dream of drafting D.J. or are they afraid that they’re going to lose

Don’t you worry about Stephania Bell‘s curse we’re going get you a running back who helps you win first

And then we’re going to draft our best friend Zeke

And then he’s going to help us win every week

Zeke Zeke Oh Zeke Zeke Zekie Zeke Zeke

but if Zeke gets drafted by the owner right before us……

well then we’re completely screwed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vAexf4IUWQ

Well, not quite, because you’ve got my annual sleepers and busts article to help you. So without further adieu, here are my 2019 sleepers and busts!

Sleepers & Undervalued QBs

Jimmy Garoppolo- Jimmy G knows the offense and is fully recovered from the knee injury in 2018. He also has more weapons than before. Garoppolo could be a sleeping giant with the emergence of all-pro TE George Kittle, rookie WR Deebo Samuel, and RB Tevin Coleman. At Fantasy Pros QB #20 he seems insanely cheap. Sleeper

Lamar Jackson- Lamar Jackson could be sitting on a monster year with his rushing stats if he can stay healthy. That said, running QBs like Jackson usually get hurt. Investing in a good backup seems prudent, however, when Action Jackson plays he should post solid numbers. Undervalued

Jameis Winston- Tampa Bay has a new head coach- Bruce Arians. Arians is an offensive guru who gets the most out of his players. In addition, the Buccaneers defense is awful. They should be trailing which means garbage fantasy points are there for the taking in the 4th Qtr. Throw in some good wide receivers and Winston can post solid numbers. The only issues are his high interception rate and a shaky offensive line. At QB #15 Winston has top 7 potential in this offense if the Bucs line can give him time. Undervalued

Busts & Overvalued QBs

Drew Brees- The Saints have a good defense which is great for the Saints title hopes, but not so good for Drew’s fantasy stats. It means the Saints will run out the clock in the 4th Qtr instead of slinging it all over the field. Brees is getting up there in age and his arm strength is declining. The loss of center Max Unger to retirement doesn’t help. Fantasy Pros QB #6 is too rich for me. Overvalued

Ben Roethlisberger- The loss of WR Antonio Brown might help with less headaches in the locker room, but it doesn’t help with fantasy stats on the field. Brown was a difference maker. There’s no way to sugar coat this- losing him and all-pro RB LeVeon Bell hurts the Steelers’ offense. In addition, Big Ben has had trouble staying healthy most years. QB #11 is too high. Bust

Tom Brady- Brady is one of the greatest QBs of all-time. At 42 he, remarkably, still hasn’t shown any signs of decline. However, the pieces around him have weakened. Losing TE Rob Gronkowski to retirement hurts. While there are rumblings Gronk might return, until that happens this offense takes a hit. Gronk was a matchup nightmare- especially in the red zone. He’s irreplaceable. Also gone is left tackle Trent Brown. The Raiders offered Brown a huge contract in free agency. Several injuries on the line concerned the Patriots enough to trade for several offensive linemen to improve their depth. The good news is WR Josh Gordon has been reinstated. When he plays he’s a difference maker. He’s the most talented WR Brady has had since Randy Moss. The main issue with Gordon is can he stay clean from substance abuse? That’s the million dollar question. Currently being drafted as QB #12 Brady seems too high given the recent departures in Foxborough. Overvalued

Sleepers & Undervalued RBs

LeSean “Shady” McCoy- I liked Shady even before the news broke of him signing with the Chiefs. After it was announced his ADP has shot up, but still not high enough. Many folks think he’s washed up. The Kansas City offense is gold for RBs. It’s gold Jerry! Gold! McCoy still has some gas left in the tank. He views head coach Andy Reid as family and he’ll have a chip on his shoulder to prove the doubters wrong. If he gets a bell cow role the sky is the limit and owners will be sitting in the shade of a championship trophy in December. McCoy’s current ADP at RB#38 right now is worth the risk. Potential league winner. Sleeper

Darrell Henderson- Well you either believe in Todd Gurley’s knees holding up or you don’t. I don’t. However, I do believe in Darrell Henderson. He’s electric and reminds me of Dalvin Cook. He can break off long runs anytime he touches the ball. He should see 8-12 touches a game and if Gurley gets hurt or the game becomes a blowout he might see more. The Rams view him as their Alvin Kamara. He won’t get a bell cow role if Gurley goes down. Most likely he’d still be in a RBBC That said- Kamara is in in RBBC too and where is he going in drafts? Exactly. With an ADP of RB #39 Henderson is cheap. Major upside. Undervalued

Tevin Coleman-Coleman should be the lead RB in San Francisco on an improving offense. He knows the scheme from his days in Atlanta. The transition should be seamless. He’s very cheap considering the talent around him along with a favorable schedule. Fantasy Pros RB #26- Undervalued.

Busts & Overvalued RBs

Todd Gurley- Gurley is going at RB#9 and #11 overall which is nuts! Last year in the NFC Championship game, which went to overtime vs New Orleans, Gurley had four rushing attempts. Two weeks later, in a very close Super Bowl vs the Patriots, he had ten. The two most important games in recent history for the Rams and their star RB hardly touched the ball! This past offseason, the Rams traded up for RB Darrell Henderson in the draft and matched an offer in free agency to retain RB Malcolm Brown despite paying Gurley $45 million. Those are major red flags. Danger Will Robinson! Danger! At best Gurley is in a RBBC, at worst he gets shut down. At #11 overall- no chance. His bell cow days are over. Bust

James Conner- There have been whispers that the Steelers drafted RB Benny Snell with the intention of having him handle goal line touches, turning this into a RBBC. If that’s the case, Conner is clearly overvalued. If on the other hand those whispers are false then Conner might be worth a 2nd round pick. That said, talent wise Conner’s not a special back and losing Antonio Brown doesn’t help. Personally I’m rooting for the kid. He’s a cancer survivor and a local guy from Pittsburgh. These are the players you root for. Taking emotions out of it- I’m taking a pass at that 2nd round price tag which seems risky. Overvalued

Joe Mixon- First Cincinnati loses 1st round pick left tackle Jonah Williams to a shoulder injury, then OL Cordy Glenn gets a concussion. Now, head coach Zac Taylor said he wants to use Gio Bernard more in the passing game. It sounds like this could be a full blown RBBC- with a bad offensive line no less. Mixon is talented enough to make me look foolish here, but there are other guys I’d rather take in the 2nd round than him. Love the player, but hate the situation. I’ll pass. Overvalued

Sleepers & Undervalued WRs

Odell Beckham- I can’t believe Beckham is falling in the 2nd round. He’s my #1 WR. Baker Mayfield is the best QB Odell has ever had. He could put up monster numbers if the offensive line can protect Baker. That’s the main concern. He’ll be plenty motivated this year. Undervalued

Deebo Samuel- He sounds like a band from the 80’s, but Deebo is a talented rookie WR and will most likely man the slot in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. According to scouts his YAC (yards after catch) ability is off the charts. He could be a PPR monster with all the catches he should get. TE George Kittle will draw the double teams freeing him up for single coverage. With a current ADP of WR #61 Deebo is a bargain. Sleeper

Sammy Watkins- What if I told you you could draft a WR on arguably the most explosive offense in the league, catching passes from Pat Mahomes (Fantasy Pros QB #1), in his 2nd year in an Andy Reid offense with an ADP of WR #34 would you take it? Few players offer the upside that Sammy Watkins does in the middle rounds. All players have warts- no one is a perfect prospect in fantasy football. In the middle rounds you want upside. Watkins offers it in bunches. It’s the first time he’s been in the same offense in several years. He should be more comfortable and play faster. Give me as many Chiefs’ players as I can get my hands on this year. Undervalued

Busts & Overvalued WRs

Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs- The Vikings fired their offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo, last year and are going to a run first attack. That doesn’t bode well for WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Fantasy Pros WRs #10 and #12 respectively is too rich given the shift to a more conservative offense. Overvalued

Cooper Kupp- Coming off a torn ACL, a mere 9 months removed from reconstructive knee surgery is unheard of. If he does I’ll tip my hat to Cooper, but the odds are against him. Fantasy Pros #20 WR and #51 overall is way too risky. Bust

Calvin Ridley- Ridley had a few big games last year, but the majority of the season was nothing to write home about. If something happens to Julio Jones a target increase could boost his stats, but at WR #22 he seems way too high given such inconsistency. Bust

Will Fuller- Fuller is another wide receiver coming off major knee surgery. He's had a tough time staying on the field and that’s when he entered the season at 100%. Now he’s coming back from major surgery and many analysts expect him to last the season? Despite his talent- WR #33 is too high considering Fuller’s injury history. Bust

Sleepers & Undervalued TEs

Jimmy Graham- Last year Graham played with a broken finger. He’s healthier this year. Well…sort of. He recently hurt another finger in the preseason. Hopefully it’s not as serious as last year. Graham says he’s good to go. We’ll see. Rookie TE Jace Sternberger was put in IR so Graham won’t lose any snaps to him. Despite those concerns, Graham is playing with one of the all-time greats in Aaron Rodgers and can be had for a song at TE #19. Undervalued

Darren Waller- Waller has size and speed. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenses. The Raiders were raving about him in the offseason which is why they let TE Jared Cook go. They’ll also be trailing in most games which means catches should be plentiful. Worth a shot late. Sleeper

Busts & Overvalued TEs

Hunter Henry- This is more about where Henry is going (currently at TE #6 & #66 overall) than his talent. If you don’t get one of the first few TEs it’s usually better to wait. In addition, WR Mike Williams should steal some of Henry’s targets in the red zone. A current ADP of #66 overall is just too high. Pass. Overvalued

Vance McDonald- A lot of fantasy analysts are all in on McDonald assuming he’ll get more snaps. but the coaches have said that’s not happening. TE#8 seems too high. You can wait and get better values at TE for cheaper who have just as good, if not, a better chance of outperforming Vance. I’ll take a pass or if you prefer it in a nursery rhyme Old McDonald had a farm E-I E-I No!!! Overvalued