2020 Sleepers and Busts
What a crazy year it’s been. If you would have told me last year that in 2020 we would be living in a pandemic I would have said you were crazy. Life, as most of us have known it, has been turned upside down. Hopefully we’ll be able to have a football season. Thinking about fantasy football sure helps take my mind off things. In case we do have a season here is my annual sleepers and busts article. Many of whom are listed as overvalued and undervalued because there aren’t many sleepers with all of the information available these days. So without further adieu here are my 2020 fantasy predictions.
QBs I like
Pat Mahomes- One of the best QBs of all-time on one of the most explosive offenses of all-time. Should return to the top of the fantasy QB mountain. (Fantasy Pros QB 1) Don’t overthink it.
Tom Brady It might take him some time to get on the same page with his new teammates, but this offense should take off. There should be a lot of shootouts in the NFC South. (Fantasy Pros QB 11) Undervalued
Philip Rivers Most are writing him off, but I think last year was more about Rivers being under siege with the Chargers shaky offensive line than an indictment of Rivers declining skills. His surrounding cast is upgraded to the best offensive line and quickest WRs he’s ever had. And he’s familiar with the Colts offense- head coach Frank Reich was his OC in San Diego several years ago. (Fantasy Pros QB 24) Sleeper
Cam Newton- It might take him time to learn the Patriots offense (remember they didn’t sign him until recently), but he’s as motivated as ever to prove the doubters wrong. I love players with a chip on their shoulder. He’s one of the best goal line rushers of all-time. (Fantasy Pros QB 16) Undervalued
QBs I’m avoiding
Lamar Jackson- ADP too risky given his rushing attempts and increased injury risk. Remember when Michael Vick was ranked high? How did that work out? Jackson is electric, but he costs too much this year. (Fantasy Pros QB 2) Overvalued
Joe Burrow- Talented young QB with tremendous confidence and poise. That said, the Bengals offensive line scares me. They need to upgrade it. I think he’s a year or two away from being a factor in fantasy. (Fantasy Pros QB 20) Slightly Overvalued
Jared Goff- The Rams did nothing to improve their offensive line. That could spell trouble once again for Goff and the Rams offense. (Fantasy Pros QB 17) Overvalued
RBs I like
Clyde Edwards-Helaire- With Damien Williams opting out the sky is the limit for the Fresh Prince of Helaire. He’ll be a reception monster on the most explosive offense in the league. (See college highlights below- click play button) (Fantasy Pros RB 7) Undervalued
Josh Jacobs- Had a great rookie year despite missing a few games with a bad shoulder. The addition of speedster Henry Ruggs III will open up running lanes. If Jacobs becomes a bigger factor in the passing game he will jump into the elite tier of RBs this year. (Fantasy Pros RB 12) Undervalued.
David Johnson Could be a rare bell cow RB and he can be had cheap. We’ll see if he has anything left in the tank. Even if DJ has lost a step the volume he gets should boost him over other RBs. Another positive- DJ gets the best offensive line he’s ever had. (Fantasy Pros RB 22) Sleeper
Jonathan Taylor Could make a major impact behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Needs to clean up the fumbles though. Not much of a factor in the passing game. Still though, he’s big, fast, and plays on a high scoring offense. (See college highlights below- click play button) (Fantasy Pros RB 21) Undervalued
Darrell Henderson Finally gets a chance for meaningful snaps with Gurley’s departure. He’ll be in a RBBC with Cam Akers and possibly Malcom Brown which limits his upside. Still though, Henderson was a big play machine in college (see college highlights below- click play button) and his ADP price tag is super cheap. Update- Henderson was injured in a scrimmage on August 22. Keep an eye on this as it develops. If it’s not serious he’s worth a shot. (Fantasy Pros RB 43) Sleeper
Benny Snell- If James Conner gets hurt again Snell is ready to pounce. He did well last year when he filled in. The Steelers offense should be much better this year with Big Ben back at the helm. In leagues with deep benches or larger rosters Snell is worth a shot as a lottery ticket. (Fantasy Pros RB 65) Sleeper
Leonard Fournette- The Jaguars tried to trade him in the spring. He’s in the last year of his contract. The change in offensive schemes isn’t a fit for him. In addition, the signing of Chris Thompson doesn’t help his reception upside either. (FantasyPros RB 17) Bust Well that was when he was on the Jaguars, things have changed in September.
***Update Jacksonville shockingly cut Fournette. He was quickly signed by Tampa Bay. One of the landing spots yours truly called after he was cut, even though some people said there was no chance Tampa Bay would be interested. Well they were wrong. He’s an upgrade to Ronald Jones and the Bucs are in win now mode. . Pound for pound he’s the most talented RB on the Buccaneers and he’s in his prime. This is the best offense he’s ever been in. No more 8 man stacked boxes like he faced in Jacksonville. Many fantasy analysts are skeptical, but I’m all in on Fournette now. And you can get him relatively cheap. 4th round or later. It might take him a few weeks to learn the offense, but Tampa isn’t signing Fournette to sit on the bench imo. There are a lot of TDs to be had down in Tampa. Fournette goes from my bust pick to RBs I like in the span of a few days. What a crazy week! Undervalued
Antonio Gibson- First Washington cut Derrius Guice in July, naturally after I took him in the Scott Fish Bowl #SFBX. Then they send Adrian Peterson packing a week before the season starts. Make no mistake Washington’s o-line is garbage, but Gibson could be a rare three down bell cow RB. He’s big and a good receiver. He played WR in college and RB in high school. And now he has an opening for playing time. (See college highlights below- click play button) (Fantasy Pros RB #32) Sleeper
RBs I’m avoiding
Dalvin Cook- He still hasn’t made it through a full season. Hard to see him repeating his best year. Don’t forget he’s still unhappy about his contract- a holdout is still a possibility. Way too much risk this early for me (Fantasy Pros RB 5) Overvalued
Miles Sanders- Has a lower leg injury. He’s week to week. I have my doubts the Eagles will give him a bell cow role . Rumors were they were looking to sign or trade for a veteran RB like Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman to ease the workload. (Fantasy Pros RB 9) Overvalued
Austin Ekeler- Gets most of his value from receptions and that’s sure to go down with the switch at QB from Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. Justin Jackson figures to split the RBBC with him. If rookie QB Justin Herbert takes over mid-season the Chargers offense plummets. (Fantasy Pros RB 14) Bust
Aaron Jones- TD regression coming big time- especially with bruising power back A.J. Dillion added to the mix. (Fantasy Pros RB 13) Bust
Chris Carson- He’s coming off an injury and to make matters worse left training camp and is dealing with some personal issues. Even if he starts the season, the Seahawks o-line isn’t the best. Hard to see Carson and his violent running style holding up for the full season. (Fantasy Pros RB 15) Overvalued
Todd Gurley He’ll be on a snap count- probably like 15 touches a game. There are already doubts about if his body will hold up over the season. The glory days of being the 1st overall pick in drafts are long gone. (Fantasy Pros RB 16) No upside here. Overvalued
Devin Singletary- He’s too small to get a full time role. Josh Allen and rookie Zack Moss will vulture any goal line TDs. I don’t understand his high ADP (Fantasy Pros RB 26). Bust
Rashaad Penny- He’s starting the year on the PUP list. His recovery from last year’s knee surgery has had some setbacks. Why some fantasy analysts are ranking him as high as they are is beyond me. Carlos Hyde is the play if you want the Seahawks backup RB in case Chris Carson goes down. (Fantasy Pros RB 68). Bust
WRs I like
Odell Beckham- Odell is finally healthy. The Browns improved o-line should help Mayfield immensely. The volume won’t be as high as other pass oriented teams, but the play action passes could set Beckham up for some big time plays. He’s still one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. (Fantasy Pros WR 14). Undervalued.
Kenny Golladay- Emerging star. Big and fast. The only thing holding him back is a run oriented scheme by OC Darrell Bevell. (Fantasy Pros WR 7) Undervalued
DK Metcalf- Another emerging star. Sounds like Seattle wants to move him to the slot. If his route running has improved- he could make a major jump this season. Physical freak. He has more upside than his teammate Tyler Lockett. (Fantasy Pros WR 22) Undervalued
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown- Throw out last year. Brown was recovering from a major foot injury. Even being at less than 100% and not knowing the offense he still made some big plays. This offseason has been much better. Hollywood has added weight (he’s at 180 lbs now) which should help him hold up over the course of the season and was running full steam. See college highlights below when he played at full speed- click play button) He should make even more of them this year. His upside is capped by the run heavy Ravens offense, but Brown could still be a bargain based on his ADP. (Fantasy Pros WR 31) Undervalued
A.J. Green- Most analysts have written Green off. I’m throwing out last year. I think that was more about contract negotiating than a terrible injury. Green is still one of the elite talents in the NFL. He hasn’t lost a step. Green gets the best QB he’s ever had in Joe Burrow. The Cincinnati o-line is still a major work in progress. If anything happens to LT Jonah Williams, things could get ugly, but the Bengals figure to be trailing in a lot of games. That sets up well for plenty of garbage time stats. A.J. is a bargain in the 7th round. (Fantasy Pros WR 32) Sleeper
Parris Campbell- His rookie year was a lost season because of injuries. The good news is many owners have soured on him, so he can be had for next to nothing. He gets a major upgrade at QB and is healthy as of this writing August 20th. He has size and can fly. Campbell was a big play machine at Ohio State. (See college highlights below- click play button) Rivers likes throwing to his slot WRs too. This year’s Scary Terry McLaurin. *Update- Parris was in a minor car accident and is now in the concussion protocol. He’ll probably be okay, but keep an eye on this. (Fantasy Pros WR 63) Sleeper
Cee Dee Lamb- As soon as Lamb sets foot in Dallas he’s the best WR they have. He’s better and more explosive than Amari Cooper. Yes I said it. I’m planting my flag on this hill. Lamb is known for his YAC ability. He can break tackles and turn them into big plays. Let someone else grab Amari in the 3rd round. Grab Lamb later who’s better and cheaper. He had a nose for the end zone at Oklahoma. (See college highlights below- click play button) Dallas figures to score a bunch this year too. (Fantasy Pros WR 47) Sleeper
Henry Ruggs III- The fastest guy when he was on an Alabama team full of all-Americans looks like the next Tyreek Hill. Anytime Ruggs III touches it he’s a threat to go the distance. A big play machine. Pure electricity! (See college highlights below- click play button) (Fantasy Pros WR 54) Sleeper
Jerry Jeudy- Another Crimson Tide star. Jeudy isn’t as fast as Ruggs III, but his routes are exceptional. He can run a full route tree and make plenty of big plays. (See college highlights below- click play button) The question mark is if the Broncos o-line can protect QB Drew Lock? RT Juwann James opted out and LT Garrett Bolles has been a disaster. Still Jeudy’s talent alone makes him worth a shot. (Fantasy Pros WR 52)
Antonio Brown- In shallow leagues you probably can’t draft him because you need the roster spot, but in deeper benches Brown is worth a shot. He’s still at the top of his game. Getting a #1 WR in week 9 could propel a fantasy contender to the title. And he’ll come pretty cheap with his ADP. Rumor is Seattle and Baltimore might be interested in signing Brown. (Fantasy Pros WR 114) Undervalued
WRs I’m avoiding
Amari Cooper- Lamb will cut into his targets. He’s not a red zone guy. Rarely takes one to the house because of his lack of speed. His route running is his bread and butter. Limited upside considering his pricey ADP. (Fantasy Pros WR 13) Overvalued
Allen Robinson- Needs Foles to stay healthy and rekindle some of that Super Bowl magic he found with the Eagles. Last I checked A-Rob still plays for the Bears and they don’t score much. He’s going too high. (Fantasy Pros WR 8) Overvalued.
Adam Thielan- The Vikings traded Stefon Diggs and drafted Justin Jefferson. They have no speed to stretch the field and they’re a run heavy offense. Thielan has had a hard time staying healthy too. (Fantasy Pros WR 12) Overvalued
Courtland Sutton- He’ll lose targets to Jerry Jeudy and possibly KJ Hamler (if Hamler recovers from his hamstring injury). Noah Fant is also in the mix. Hard to see any upside here given his current ADP. (Fantasy Pros WR 23) Overvalued.
Stefon Diggs- He has one of the most inaccurate QBs in the league throwing to him now in Josh Allen. Playing in Buffalo in December doesn’t help. (Fantasy Pros WR 27) Bust
Deebo Samuel- He broke his foot in the summer. Last I checked a foot is pretty important for a WR. I’m not touching him this year. (Fantasy Pros WR 46) Bust
TEs I like
Rob Gronkowski- It sounds like Gronk will be on a pitch count to save the wear and tear on him for the playoffs. The Bucs will use him in the red zone, in end of game situations, and in big plays in the game. That limits his upside, but the TDs should be there with TB12 slinging him the rock again. And there should be a lot of them with the Bucs explosive offense. (Fantasy Pros TE 13) Slightly Undervalued
Noah Fant- Emerging talent who can make big plays if given the opportunity. Has the talent to be an elite TE. (See college highlights below- click play button) Upside could be capped because of the Broncos shaky o-line. He’s worth a shot. (Fantasy Pros TE 14) Undervalued
Jared Cook- He’s a forgotten man in fantasy, but Cook came on strong at the end of last year. Remember Brees missed time with an injury in 2019 hurting Cook’s stats. The Saints figure to be in plenty of shootouts this year and Cook’s ADP price (FantasyPros TE 10) is cheap. Undervalued
Greg Olsen- In deeper leagues Olsen could surprise. Not sure if he has anything left, but Russell Wilson is a magician the way he extends plays. Olsen could put up some serious stats if he can stay healthy. (Fantasy Pros TE 24) Sleeper
Kaden Smith Evan Engram is the guy on the NY Giants everyone will draft, but he’s had a hard time staying on the field. When Engram was out last year, Kaden Smith came on strong. If that happens again, Smith could be a major sleeper at a barren position. (Fantasy Pros TE 52) Deep Sleeper
TEs I’m avoiding
Mark Andrews He’s going way too high, especially since the offense he plays on runs it more than any team in the league. (Fantasy Pros TE 3) Bust
Hunter Henry Seems too high given the change at QB. If Tyrod gets pulled for rookie QB Justin Herbert the Chargers offense will suffer. (Fantasy Pros TE 7) Bust
Austin Hooper Hooper goes from a pass heavy offense in a dome to a run heavy offense up in Cleveland. He seems way too expensive. (Fantasy Pros TE 11) Overvalued
T.J. Hockenson His ankle was bothering him in the offseason. Reports out of Detroit is that it’s still bothering him. Maybe I’m being too cautious, but I never like it when a player enters the season a little banged up. Let someone else take T.J. and his bum ankles. (Fantasy Pros TE 16) Avoid