2023 Quarter Pole AFC — Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

We’re through more than a quarter of the season. Here’s what I’ve learned so far.

AFC EAST

Buffalo- I’m one for two on my Buffalo sleeper picks. Gabe Davis is quietly sitting at WR 12. That’s pretty good considering he was going around WR 40 in drafts. His ankle is healthy this year and it’s made a difference. However, on the flip side, rookie TE Dalton Kincaid is off to a slow start. Perhaps he’ll pick it up later in the season, but fantasy owners might have to wait until next year for the talented youngster to make an impact.

Miami- Tua is flourishing. Hopefully, he can stay healthy. That’s the only concern I had on him entering the season. I’m rooting for him. If he can, he should continue to flourish with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle catching his passes…..Two of the biggest sleepers have been the Dolphins’ RBs. Rookie Devon Achane and veteran Raheem Mostert are ranked as RB 3 and RB 2 respectively. I thought Achane was too small to handle a big workload, especially with a sore shoulder entering the season. However, despite not getting anywhere close to a bell cow role, his game breaking speed alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has been nightmare for defenses to stop. Unfortunately, a knee injury last week will put the exciting rookie on the shelf for a while. Mostert has been a force too. The Dolphins will most likely lean on him and possibly Jeff Wilson, if he’s healthy.……Tyreek Hill has been his usual dominant self, but was nicked up last week. Hopefully he’s okay. If he’s not that could be a boon for Jaylen Waddle, who’s off to a slow start. Waddle should rebound regardless. He’s too talented.

N.Y. Jets- Breece Hall appears to be bucking the odds of RBs returning from reconstructive knee surgery and doing well the following year. I still think he went too high in drafts, given his limited snap count to start the year and the risk of a setback, but he looks explosive. I’m happy for him and every player who bucks the odds of such a devastating injury……The Jets passing game is pretty much cooked without Aaron Rodgers. And despite Hall’s incredible week, the Broncos aren’t on the Jets’ schedule anymore. Now seems like a good time to sell high.

New England- The Patriots’ offense has officially reached rock bottom. What a dumpster fire it’s turned into. Only my jokes have garnered more boos haha! Don’t be surprised if New England replaces Mac Jones with Bailey Zappe or even Will Grier permanently……At least my call fading RB Rhamondre Stevenson at his exorbitant draft cost ADP RB 10 is looking good. Zeke is cutting into his workload, which is brutal for Stevenson owners, especially considering how inept the offense has been.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati- Prior to last week, Joe Burrow’s calf sunk the Bengals’ offense. However, it held up last week in a “get right” game for Cincinnati against Arizona…...JaMarr Chase finally showed his first-round fantasy chops. However, Tee Higgins’ rib injury could be problematic throughout the season. That could be a boon for Chase owners if the Bengals can protect Burrow, which surprisingly, isn’t a given this year.

Baltimore- My biggest sleeper pick, Odell Beckham, has been a no-show. I thought he was healthy coming into the season, but his ankle has caused him to miss time. Lamar Jackson struggled mightily last week with a poorly underthrown pass in the endzone intended for Beckham, which was intercepted. At least Beckham’s WR 59 price tag was cheap enough to not hurt owners too much who rolled the dice on the former star. Hopefully, Odell’s ankle is healthy and they can get on track.

Cleveland- DeShaun Watson finally started coming alive and then he injured his shoulder. This injury has caused some frustration between him and the coaching staff. That’s never a good sign. I still believe in his talent, but I did not see that curve ball coming. Per Browns beat writer, Mary Kay Cabot, Watson could miss multiple weeks……The Browns suffered another huge loss when Nick Chubb went down earlier in week 2. He’s one of the best RBs in the NFL. Chubb’s leadership in the locker room is invaluable. Fortunately, it looks like his injury isn’t career ending……David Njoku, has burned not only himself (literally), but yours truly who had Njoku as one of his sleeper/undervalued TEs. I still believe in his talent, but so far, the chemistry with Watson has yet to materialize into fantasy points for frustrated owners.

Pittsburgh- One of the calls I have been accurate on has been George Pickens. Pickens has asserted himself as the de facto go-to-guy in the Steel City. His TD catch last week versus the Ravens was the game winner. He’s been a good value so far this year. Pickens is currently at WR 13, which is amazing given how much the Steelers’ offense has struggled. It might be a good time to see if you can sell high. Kenny Pickett has not taken the next step, at least not yet, and that caps the entire offense, including Pickens….The Steelers’ ground game appears to be in a state of transition. Jaylen Warren looks faster and better than Najee Harris. I never thought I’d say that, but I trust my eyes. And my eyes tell me Warren is better. This reminds me when “Fast” Willie Parker came out of nowhere and took the starting job in Pittsburgh circa 2004/2005.

AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville- Trevor Lawrence and Evan Engram have been a disappointment so far. Both are talented enough to rebound, but time is running out for frustrated fantasy owners who need a W…….Travis Etienne has been a fantasy star. Naturally, I trusted Jaguars’ head coach, Doug Pederson, when during the offseason, he said Etienne’s workload would be reduced this season. I had him on my bust list. Etienne is currently RB 4! Tank’s Doug! (That’s a reference to rookie RB Tank Bigsby, who I thought would have a bigger fantasy impact.)

Indianapolis- Anthony Richardson is everything I hoped he’d be and more. He’s truly one of the most athletic players in the league. Richardson is big and fast. Some scouts might say he’s Cam Newton-eske. Unfortunately, Richardson injured his shoulder and is out for the season. Naturally, this happens to one of my sleeper picks. What unbelievably bad luck I have! Out of 200 people in the Fantasy Pros accuracy contest, it was yours truly who had Richardson ranked the highest coming into the year at QB 6. That would have worked had he stayed healthy- ugh! Gardner Minshew takes over at QB……..At RB Jonathan Taylor is back. The Colts and Taylor agreed to a contract extension. They’ll ramp up his workload in the coming weeks. When Richardson returns next year, it will be interesting to see who gets the call at the goal line. Regardless, I’d expect Taylor to lose valuable touches, both there and in the passing game, but for now he should return to being an elite fantasy RB.

Tennessee- The Titans’ offense in general has struggled, but more so with the passing attack. Tennessee’s offensive line is a work in progress. Ryan Tannehill is currently at QB 29. As expected, WR DeAndre Hopkins’ stats have taken a major hit now that he’s on a more run-heavy offense.

Houston- C.J. Stroud has been one of the surprise fantasy players in 2023. He’s currently at QB 14 and that’s with an injury riddled line. Once they heal up, Stroud could take yet another step forward. Two of the beneficiaries of Stroud’s strong start (say that fast five times haha) have been Nico Collins WR 10 and Tank Dell WR 23. Even the most optimistic Collins’ supporters didn’t see that coming. And even less fantasy folks had the Stroud-Collins or Stroud-Dell stacks on their bingo cards.

AFC WEST
Kansas City- Like I thought in my sleeper article, Isiah Pacheco has taken another step forward. He’s currently at RB 12. Pacheco is providing plenty of profit considering his ADP over the summer was around RB 27. His increased usage in the passing game is helping his ascent towards the top ten……Paging Kadarius Toney! Kadarius Toney! Where are you? (Probably offsides haha, but I digress.) So much for that sleeper call. It’s still hard for me to believe that, despite playing with one of the greatest QBs in history, the highest ranked Chiefs’ WR is Rashee Rice at WR 50. Good grief! Well, as long as they don’t show Taylor Swift cheering during a telecast, I can live with that bad call. Seriously, enough with that jazz. No one cares! I just want to watch a football game in peace. Is that asking too much? End of rant.

L.A. Chargers- Justin Herbert is back folks. Hopefully, Austin Ekeler will be too. Apparently, he’s the only RB who has any fantasy value on the Chargers. Joshua Kelley did nothing while Ekeler was out except hurt me in the accuracy contest. Fortunately, I’m so bad at those contests the joke is on him haha! With Mike Williams out for the season, (*note to self, never rank Williams high again. His injury risk is too high.) look for Joshua Palmer or first round rookie Quentin Johnston to step up. Keenan Allen has taken advantage of his absence with a strong start. The crafty veteran currently sits at WR 7!

Las Vegas- Well, like I feared the Raiders’ offensive line is still a work in progress folks. Jimmy Garoppolo’s limited mobility is not the best match for a shaky line. He’s already been injured and rookie Aidan O’Connell came in and struggled……Josh Jacobs was on my bust list because of his high price tag. That call looks like a good one right now. He’s currently at RB 17, which isn’t good enough for owners who spent a first or second round pick on the talented RB…….WR Davante Adams isn’t happy with his usage or the fact that his friend, Derek Carr, was allowed to leave for New Orleans. Don’t be surprised if the star WR gets traded before the deadline, especially since the Raiders are in a rebuilding year.

Denver- While their defense has struggled mightily, one of my sleeper picks is doing decent. Russell Wilson has showed signs of fantasy life. He’s currently at QB 9. I thought the hate on Russ was too much. Hopefully, Jerry Jeudy will start to benefit. He’s been a disappointment so far. There’s talk that Jeudy could be dealt before the trade deadline. The Colts are reportedly, one of the teams interested in Jeudy. Rookie WR Marvin Mims would see his stock jump if that rumor were to transpire…….On another note, I give up when it comes to picking the right RB in Denver. I thought if Javonte Williams was slow getting out of the gate, Samaje Perine would be the main benefactor. That hasn’t happened. He’s talented enough to handle a full workload, but Sean Payton sees it differently. Coach Payton is a lot smarter than me, but I’m still better looking haha!